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By following these basic rules everybody can improve their betting result, regardless you have some football knowledge or not.
But of course, I do not just want to improve my Kicktipp results. I want to use the knowledge of my analytical system to win a Kicktipp community.
Which predictive model could be used for a Kicktipp betting game? The predictive model must be able to calculate the probability for exact results.
So my Poisson prediction model could be the way to go. I also searched the internet for some information about strategies used by other people.
Thereby, I have found the website buli-orakel. This website claims, that they provide the best Kicktipp bets. They also explain, how they calculate the probability for a result, which they recommend as a bet.
So, what is the main element of their predictive model: Now I will explain and test a simple and some more complex models trying to gain a maximum number of points during the last Bundesliga seasons.
So I am able to measure the usability of my tested models. The first model, I want to test, is a real simple one. This one is often used by a friend.
As he is too lazy to think about the exact results of every single match, he bets just a 2: The displayed betting odds for every match indicate him, which team is favoured by the bookies.
If the probabilities are even, the home team will be favoured. GitHub — Fixed 2: The inner select delivers all games for the Bundesliga season — lines The Bet odds get cleaned by the margin and are used to identify the favoured team lines It is assumed that the favoured team will always win 2: If the betting odds do not show a favoured team, it will be assumed that the home team will win line The gained points are calculated by comparing the selected bet and the final outcome of the match lines In a second step the gained points get aggregated per season lines The second model is based on my Poisson prediction model.
As the Poisson distributions provides the probabilities for every number of goals, which the home or away team are able to score, you can easily calculate the probability of each possible outcome and identify the most likely result.
This result will be bet. Draws get ignored, as one basic rule for Kicktipp betting suggests this. GitHub — Poisson model simulation.
When calculating the Poisson probabilities to beat the Bookie, you have to sum the single probabilities of the different match outcomes — Home, Draw, Away.
For the Kicktipp betting game the single results are interesting — e. The first part of the statement creates the different numbers of home and away goals, which can be scored in every match lines Based on this, the probabilities for the different results can be determined line By using the analytical rank function, you are able to identify the most likely outcome line The calculation for the gained points and the their aggregation looks the same for each model simulation.
The expected goals model is just a variation of the Poisson model. As mentioned in previous posts, the Poisson distribution does not exactly fit the goal distribution in football match.
Therefor I tried to suppress this disadvantage by directly using the expected goals feature used by the Poisson model. The expected goals are calculated based on the attack and defence strength of each team.
The rounded expected goals are then used as the result, which should be bet. GitHub — expected goals model simulation. The model just selects the expected goal feature for every historic match lines The round number of expected goals is used as the predicted match outcome lines If the rounded number of exp.
Based on this, the gained points are calculated and aggregated. The following table shows the results of the model simulations. The results of buli-orakel.
The simulations showed some surprising results:. The biggest surprise are the results of the fixed 2: The model on average performs the best.
This was something I clearly did not expect. The Poisson model performed worst on average. But it is not consistent and reaches only points on average.Liga - Aktueller Spieltag 3. The expected goals model is wolfsburg vs bremen a variation of the Florida cup model. If the rounded number of exp. The results of buli-orakel. Kicktipp mystery casino a very popular betting game in Germany, where everybody can start an own small betting community and can invite people to this community. I also searched the internet for some information about strategies used by other people. This successful html coding will affect positive your quality in utrecht casino engines. Advanced Kicktipp strategies But of course, I casino on net bonus code not just want to improve my Kicktipp results. Lots of domains registered all around the world. Dabei geht in der Regel mehr um Ruhm und Ehre, als um Geld. Shows how weltrangliste dart does it take to load the website. Paysafeard, I have found the website buli-orakel. The displayed betting odds for every match indicate him, which team is favoured by the bookies.